The National Retail Federation said on October 15 that it expects holiday sales in November and December to grow 4.2% this year to about $1.013 trillion, an acceleration from the 3.1% growth, to $972 billion, recorded last season. Deloitte, which measures a longer window from November through January, forecasts total holiday retail sales of $1.70 trillion to $1.71 trillion, up 4.0% to 4.8%, with e-commerce growing between 7.5% and 8.4%.
For owners and managers of retail property, the headline is encouraging. The more useful part is underneath it. Both forecasts describe a shopper who is still spending and still watching the budget, and that shapes who benefits from the season and how.
What the Forecasts Say About the Shopper
NRF describes consumers who will prioritize the holiday season while staying mindful of their budgets. Deloitte’s survey of roughly 4,000 consumers points to average household holiday spending rising about 4% to $1,654, with the gains driven by Gen Z and millennial shoppers. Within that, retail spending is expected to rise about 10% to $988, while spending on holiday activities is projected to fall 4% to $666.
One more detail stands out. Among shoppers who plan to give an experience as a gift, 79% also plan to pair it with a physical item. Even experience-focused gifting still runs through retail.
Stores Still Have a Job to Do
E-commerce is forecast to grow faster than overall sales, and that is worth taking seriously. Our read is that it does not make physical retail less important. It changes what a center is being asked to do. For many shoppers, the store is where they pick up an order, make a return, or find the gift they had not planned on. Centers that make those trips easy, with convenient parking, clear signage, and good lighting, support the tenants who depend on that traffic.
A Pre-Black Friday Checklist for Owners
- Walk the property at dusk. Check parking lot and exterior lighting and replace anything that is out.
- Confirm that signage works and wayfinding is clear, including tenant pylons and monument signs.
- Confirm your snow and ice plan and your vendor’s response times before the first storm, not after it.
- Make vacant storefronts look cared for: clean glass, lights on, and window graphics where appropriate.
- Review leases that include percentage rent, along with reporting dates and holiday hour requirements.
Why Lease Terms Matter More in a Strong Season
A busy season is when the details in a lease get tested. Hours of operation, common area maintenance obligations, signage rules, and parking and loading provisions all matter more when traffic is high. Owners who have reviewed these provisions with their tenants before Black Friday are less likely to be sorting out misunderstandings in the middle of the season. If a tenant is planning extended hours or a temporary outdoor display, it is easier to agree on the terms in advance than to resolve them after the fact.
Seasonal Tenants Can Fill a Gap, With Care
A short-term or pop-up tenant can bring life to a vacant space for the season and generate income that would otherwise be zero. The paperwork deserves the same care as a long-term lease. Confirm insurance requirements, set clear start and end dates with restoration obligations, and spell out who pays for utilities and signage. It is also worth deciding up front whether the short-term tenant could interfere with a longer-term leasing strategy for the same space.
What a Strong Season Means for Early-Year Lease Conversations
Tenants who have a good fourth quarter are in a stronger position to talk about renewals, expansions, and second locations. Owners who have been responsive and visible through the season are the ones tenants call first when those decisions come up. It is also worth remembering that these figures are forecasts. NRF’s number comes from economic modeling, and actual results will not be known until after the season ends. Planning for a strong holiday while staying close to your tenants is a better approach than assuming the forecast will play out exactly as written.
How Friedman Can Help
Friedman Real Estate leases and manages retail properties across Metro Detroit and the broader Midwest. If you own a shopping center and want a second set of eyes on how it is positioned heading into the season, or on how to approach tenant conversations in the new year, we are happy to talk it through. Reach out at friedmanrealestate.com.
